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🗳️ Political predictions (2025–2029)

Predictions recorded: Aug 31, 2025

Background and introduction

People today get their news from very different sources. Some rely on legacy media, others follow X, Facebook, or different social platforms, and many mix several channels. The result is that people can form entirely different views of what’s happening in the world. Whole stories may be covered by only one side of the aisle, and other stories can be framed so differently that they feel like two separate realities.

There’s a reasonable concern about echo chambers that feed back what we want to hear. It’s a fair worry, especially since (in my opinion) much of the legacy press has shifted left, and social platforms optimize for content we engage with. Personally, I don’t think I’m living in a bubble with a skewed version of reality; I believe I have a decent sense of what’s going on, broadly speaking. To put my money where my mouth is, I’m noting a few concrete political predictions below.

Obviously, making predictions is difficult—especially about the future—but I think there’s a good chance that more than one of these will materialize. Note that these are not intended to reflect my personal opinions; they’re simply my best speculations about the future, stated as tangible points.

Darth Vader meme about accurate predictions
Keeping receipts, one prediction at a time.
# Prediction Date made ⇅ Deadline ⇅ Status ⇅ Notes
Keir Starmer won’t last a full year as PM in the UK (out by Sept 2026). 2025-08-31 2026-09-01 Completed ✅ Driven by polling collapse, immigration crisis, free speech crack-downs.

Update 2026-06-22: Starmer announced his resignation as Labour leader and UK prime minister before the 2026-09-01 deadline, with a leadership transition expected to follow. Documentation: BBC, AP transcript.
“Remigration” as a concept will enter mainstream political discourse (media + politicians) in Western Europe and might become policy in some countries 2025-08-31 2027-12-31 Pending Currently a fringe term → likely to appear in mainstream debates/editorials by 2026–27. Especially plausible in NL, DE, SE, UK, or FR manifestos.
One of the following countries will see a landslide right-wing (cultural/conservative) win. So focused on immmigration and not taxes necessarily: UK, Sweden, Germany, Netherlands, or France 2025-08-31 2029-12-31 Pending Candidates: Le Pen in France 2027, PVV in NL 2025, AfD breakthroughs.
13 September 2025 London demonstration (free speech and immigration) will be huge and covered in mainstream media. Update on 2025-09-12: My guess is 100,000+ attendees. 2025-08-31 2025-09-13 Completed ✅ Reported attendance ~110,000 (likely higher). Broad mainstream coverage, though often negative in tone. Outcome met: large turnout and significant press coverage.
Marine Le Pen (Front National) or another candidate from her party wins 2027 French presidential election. 2025-08-31 2027-04-01 Pending Polls show FN leading; Macron term-limited. Likely flashpoint election. Even if establishment is trying to put her in jail.
Netherlands Oct 2025 snap election delivers a win for Geert Wilder's party. They will go into goverment 2025-08-31 2025-10-01 Partially met ⚠️ PVV tied D66 for first (26/150 seats, −11 vs. 2023). So they are tied for the largest party. As of End Dec 2025, no goverment formed. Likely will be with PVV in opposition.
Some issue related to grooming gangs or immigration/boat refugees in the UK will blow up and cause → major riots/media storm. 2025-08-31 2026-07-01 Partially met ⚠️ Pattern of escalating protests suggests another eruption.

Update 2026-07-10: Conservatively, this prediction has not really been fully met yet. There have, however, been some UK riots and violent confrontations in the same general area of immigration/race tensions. The clearest example is Belfast in June 2026, where anti-immigrant rioting followed a stabbing allegedly involving a Sudanese refugee; reports described homes and vehicles targeted, families displaced, police injured, and major media coverage. Southampton also saw violent disorder in June 2026 after the Henry Nowak case, though that is a less direct fit because it was more about race, policing, and knife crime than boats/refugees. Documentation: AP on Belfast, Le Monde on Belfast, AP on Southampton.
“Free speech crackdowns (jailing for posts, policing protests) will become a top-3 political issue in the UK by 2027, fuelling Reform’s or an even firmer alternative's rise” 2025-08-31 2027-06-01 Pending They can't course correct and will keep jailing people for speech which will increase the problem
Click headers with ⇅ to sort. Sorting supports numbers, dates (YYYY-MM-DD), and text.

Documentation

13 Sep 2025 London Protest — attendance and coverage
Crowd at the 13 September 2025 London protest in London
Captured at the 13 Sep 2025 protest. Reports suggest ~110,000 participants; coverage across major outlets, often critical in framing.
Another vantage point of the 13 September 2025 London protest showing dense crowds
Additional view from the same event, illustrating crowd density across adjacent streets.
Aerial view showing a densely packed march along a long city block during the 13 September 2025 London protest
High-angle aerial photo highlighting the continuous density along the route.
  • Attendance: Current reports cite around 110,000; likely higher.
  • Coverage: Broad mainstream coverage, though frequently negative in tone.
Sources

Coverage and references to police attendance estimates (CCTV and aerial analysis). Timestamps/quotes added where available:

Oct 2025 Netherlands snap election — seats and status

The snap parliamentary vote produced a tie at the top: social-liberal D66 and Geert Wilders’ PVV each won 26 of the 150 seats, with PVV giving back 11 seats compared with 2023. VVD slid to 22 seats, GroenLinks–PvdA to 20, and the Christian Democrats (CDA) resurged to 18, ensuring no bloc can govern alone.

Party Seats (150 total)
D6626
PVV26
VVD22
GL-PvdA20
CDA18
JA219
FvD7
BBB4
Denk3
SGP3
PvdD3
Christian Union3
Socialist Party (SP)3
50+2
Volt1

Coalition talks remain unresolved. After PVV walked away from the Schoof cabinet, D66 nominated former minister Wouter Koolmees as scout and the king appointed Hans Wijers and Sybrand Buma as informateurs to broker a centrist D66–CDA–VVD agreement. Wilders has publicly said PVV is unlikely to be part of the next government, so the prediction stays only partially fulfilled until a cabinet is formed.

Source